Government has revised its projected petroleum revenue for 2026 upward to approximately $1.5 billion, citing higher-than-expected crude oil prices on the international market.
The new projection represents a significant increase from the roughly $1 billion estimate contained in the 2026 Budget and comes amid a sustained rise in global oil prices driven largely by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Finance Minister Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson disclosed the revised outlook in an interview with Bloomberg, indicating that Ghana stands to benefit from stronger export earnings as an oil-producing country.
“We estimated approximately 1 billion United States dollars from the oil revenue this year going to the heritage stabilisation and annual budget funding amount,” he said.
“But that has been revised since and we expect that instead of a billion, we’ll be expecting about one and a half billion, for example.”
According to the Finance Minister, the revision reflects the gap between the oil price assumption used in preparing the budget and prevailing market prices.
“We had earlier on the programme, the budget of 2026, assumed that the oil price would be about $70. Today it’s in excess of $90 and so there is obviously an increase,” Dr. Forson explained.
The Minister noted that while higher crude prices pose challenges for many economies, Ghana is also benefiting from increased foreign exchange inflows as an exporter of crude oil.
“Since we are also an exporter of oil, the country also benefits from the high price as well,” he stated.
Dr. Forson further indicated that even if global oil prices decline following a resolution of tensions in the Middle East, Ghana’s fiscal outlook would remain largely protected because the country’s budget projections were based on a much lower oil price benchmark.
“The good news is that because we had already programmed $70 or $74, a peace agreement that brings it back to $74 is to our advantage because we never anticipated that we’re going to go to $90 or $100 in any way,” he said.
The revised petroleum revenue projection is expected to feature in government’s Mid-Year Budget Review scheduled for July.
