Fitch Solutions is forecasting that the Bank of Ghana (BoG) will cut its monetary policy rate to 16.50% by the end of 2026, supported by continued currency stability and a steady decline in inflation.
Speaking at the 2026 PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) Post-Budget Forum in Accra, Mike Kruiniger, Assistant Director at Fitch Solutions, noted that Ghana’s strengthening macroeconomic environment provides scope for further monetary easing in the coming year.
He highlighted that the BoG has already initiated an aggressive easing cycle.
“Rates have remained elevated, but the Bank of Ghana launched a decisive easing cycle this summer, cutting by 650 basis points so far — the fastest monetary easing cycle globally this year,” he said.
Kruiniger added that with inflation now back within the central bank’s target band—supported by robust foreign exchange inflows and a relatively stable currency—Fitch expects the benchmark policy rate to be gradually reduced to 16.50% by the end of 2026.
“While monetary transmission takes time, we anticipate a clear pickup in private-sector credit demand over the coming quarters, following nearly three years of weakness”, he noted.
Meanwhile, Fitch Solutions has predicted robust economic growth for Ghana in 2026, projecting that the country will outperform many of its emerging-market peers. The UK-based research firm attributes this outlook to Ghana’s solid macroeconomic performance in 2025 and expects the momentum to extend into next year.
“We see the 2026 budget as broadly supportive of growth, and this aligns with our forecast that Ghana’s real GDP growth will rise from an already strong 5.8% in 2025 to 5.9% in 2026. Continued strong economic performance will be driven by private consumption and an ongoing recovery in fixed investment, which is rebounding from the sharp contraction recorded in 2023″, Kruiniger added.
However, Kruiniger cautioned that the escalating Islamist insurgency in the Sahel poses a significant risk to Ghana’s economic outlook heading into 2026. He explained that persistent instability in the region could lead to security spillovers with implications for Ghana’s investment climate, fiscal health, and broader macroeconomic stability.
He further noted that Ghana may be compelled to increase military spending to safeguard the economy from potential shocks.
