Market watchers are increasingly aligning with Fitch Solutions’ projection of a sharp reduction in the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at the Bank of Ghana’s next Monetary Policy Committee meeting in January 2026, forecasting a substantial 350-basis-point (bps)cut that would lower the rate from 18% to 14.5%.
Their expectations follow continued improvements in key macroeconomic indicators.
November inflation dropped to 6.3%, while the Ghana Reference Rate (GRR) for December stands at 15.93%. Lending rates, averaging between 21% and 22%, remain significantly above inflation, prompting calls for a decisive policy adjustment to realign the interest-rate environment with current price stability.
Finance and Tax Analyst Nelson Cudjoe Kuagbedzi tells Citi Business News that the prevailing economic data provides enough room for the central bank to ease its monetary stance more aggressively.
“For November, inflation was 6.3 percent, policy rate was at 18 percent, the Ghana Reference Rate is around 15.93 percent, and lending rates hover between 21 and 22 percent. Clearly, there is a huge gap between inflation and the policy rate.
We expect the MPC to cut the rate by about 350 basis points to 14.50 percent. Once this happens, lending rates should decline, allowing for credit expansion to the private sector, which needs cheaper funds for growth and sustainable job creation.”
Players say a steeper rate cut could stimulate borrowing, support private-sector investment, and sustain Ghana’s economic recovery momentum as inflation stabilises.
