Petrol and diesel prices are set to ease marginally at the pumps in the first pricing window of May, while LPG is expected to record a sharp increase.
This is according to projections by the Chamber of Oil Marketing Companies (COMAC).
COMAC’s latest pricing outlook indicates that petrol and diesel ex-pump prices could decline by 0.51% and 6.77%, respectively.
In contrast, LPG prices are projected to rise by as much as 10.41%, despite a general decline in international refined product prices over the period.
The projected reductions in petrol and diesel prices are attributed to lower global benchmarks and the continued impact of a joint government–industry intervention aimed at cushioning consumers.
However, the LPG increase reflects the delayed effect of the current tender arrangement, which cushioned earlier price hikes, but is now beginning to reflect in market prices.
Crude oil market dynamics
On the international market, crude oil prices declined significantly in early May, falling from $129.80 per barrel to $113.80 per barrel, representing a 12.33% drop.
The easing trend is linked to improving market sentiment around geopolitical tensions, particularly expectations that the most intense phase of the US–Iran conflict may have passed.
However, developments in the Middle East, including the United Arab Emirates’ reported exit from OPEC, have introduced fresh uncertainty and raised questions about potential shifts in global energy policy.
Petroleum product prices on the international market
International refined product prices also trended downward for the pricing window, with diesel recording the steepest decline of 14.16%, followed by LPG at 13.11% and petrol at 1.08%.
Cedi performance
Meanwhile, the Ghana cedi recorded a marginal depreciation against the US dollar during the period, weakening from GH¢11.13 to GH¢11.21, representing a 0.65% decline.
Price floor
In line with these developments, the National Petroleum Authority (NPA) has marginally reduced price floors for petrol and diesel for the first pricing window of May.
Petrol is expected to sell at a minimum of GH¢13.25 per litre, down slightly from GH¢13.27 per litre in the second pricing window of April.
Diesel saw a more pronounced adjustment, with the price floor dropping to GH¢14.30 per litre from GH¢16.10 per litre, marking a reduction of GH¢1.80.
In contrast, the price floor for LPG has been increased sharply to GH¢13.02 per kilogram, up from GH¢10.79 per kilogram, reflecting a rise of GH¢2.23 over the same period.
The NPA maintains that all Oil Marketing Companies and LPG Marketing Companies must comply with the stipulated price floors under the Petroleum Products Pricing Guidelines.
The regulator further notes that the announced price floors exclude premiums charged by international oil trading companies, as well as the operating margins of bulk import, distribution and export companies, in addition to marketers’ and dealers’ margins.
These components remain variable and are determined independently by industry players within the framework of the pricing guidelines.
