Ghana could return to IMF programme by 2033 – Bokpin

Economist Professor Godfred Bokpin has projected that Ghana could return to another IMF-supported programme by 2033 if longstanding structural weaknesses in the economy remain unresolved, arguing that trend analysis points to a repeat of the country’s historical cycle of economic distress.

Delivering a presentation at the 2026 Axis Pension Trust Pension Strategy Conference, Professor Godfred Bokpin said the country’s economic difficulties continue to reflect the same challenges that triggered earlier engagements with the IMF, dating back to the first programme application under Dr. Kwame Nkrumah.

“The reasons Dr. Kwame Nkrumah cited for approaching the IMF are not substantially different from the reasons we cited in 2022 for our current programme,” he said.

Professor Bokpin argued that repeated IMF interventions suggest Ghana has not sufficiently addressed the underlying structural weaknesses in its economy.

“If we were learning from past programs with determination, we should be able to identify why we have been going there that often. I can assure you there is a way you can predict if these things persist, that we will be there.

“When government announced that they were exiting the programme, we did our analysis and concluded that Ghana will be fully ready for another IMF supported program by 2032 or 2033,” he noted.

He warned that such an outcome could coincide with emerging concerns around the sustainability of Ghana’s pension system, suggesting that potential fiscal pressures could deepen if reforms are delayed.

Professor Godfred Bokpin said recurring economic challenges such as volatile commodity prices, rising public debt and weakening reserves have consistently contributed to Ghana’s return to external support programmes.

He also highlighted the country’s persistent inflation challenges, noting that inflation accelerated from below 1% in 1964 to over 26% in 1965 following the introduction of the cedi.

Professor Godfred Bokpin argued that while inflation has moderated in recent periods, Ghana’s economic structure makes maintaining low inflation difficult over the long term.