Ghana’s inflation rate could ease in July 2026, potentially dropping below the 5.3 percent recorded in June.
According to a new outlook by Databank Research, inflation could moderate to between 4.6 percent and 5.0 percent as seasonal factors begin to improve food supply conditions.
Databank says the anticipated slowdown will come ahead of the August harvest season, which is expected to increase the availability of food products and help contain price pressures across key markets.
The research firm also points to easing petroleum prices as a major factor that could support lower inflation in the coming month. Combined with favourable base effects from July 2025, when consumer prices increased more sharply, the current year’s inflation figures may appear relatively subdued.
According to the report, the expected moderation is driven by month-specific factors rather than a broad-based quarterly trend, suggesting that inflation dynamics remain sensitive to developments in food supply and energy markets.
The outlook comes after Ghana’s inflation rate rose to 5.3 percent in June from 3.7 percent in May, marking the third consecutive monthly increase this year. The increase was attributed to higher fuel and utility costs as well as shortages of selected food staples.
Databank analysts, however, argue that services inflation played an even bigger role, driven by persistent increases in petroleum prices and utility tariffs. Non-food inflation accelerated from 4.1 percent to 6.3 percent year-on-year during the period.
The report also points to rising prices of staple foods such as tomatoes and fresh fish as additional factors behind the June increase.
If Databank’s projections materialise, July could mark the first easing in inflation since the start of the recent upward trend, offering some relief to households and businesses ahead of the main harvest season.
