Ghana’s inflation is expected to ease further to between 6 and 7 percent in November 2025, as stronger domestic food supply, a stable cedi, and favourable base effects continue to support the country’s disinflation momentum.
According to a new outlook from Databank Research, the projection follows a sharper-than-expected moderation in inflation to 8.0 percent in October, the lowest in four years, driven largely by falling food prices and stable non-food costs.
Databank believes the trend signals that Ghana is entering a phase of sustained price stability within the Bank of Ghana’s target band of 8 percent ± 2 percentage points.
It notes that improved food supply and a stable exchange rate remain the key anchors, even as seasonal demand ahead of the festive period may pose some short-term risk. Food inflation eased to 9.5 percent in October from 11.0 percent in September, while non-food inflation slowed to 6.9 percent from 8.2 percent year-on-year. Month-on-month inflation also turned negative at –0.41 percent, reflecting improved domestic supply conditions and declining transport costs.
Policy Space Opening for Rate Cuts
With inflation expectations now firmly anchored, Databank says the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has ample room to cut the policy rate by 350 basis points — from 21.5 percent to 18 percent — to support growth and credit expansion.
“We foresee another policy rate cut at the November MPC meeting without compromising the real policy rate,” the report said, adding that the slowdown in inflation provides the right conditions for a gradual easing of monetary policy.
The expected reduction in interest rates, if delivered, could lower borrowing costs for businesses and households, boost investment confidence, and accelerate Ghana’s post-stabilisation growth.
Steady Cedi, Strong Harvest to Sustain Gains
Databank attributes the ongoing disinflation to a combination of currency stability, lower transport costs, and seasonal harvest effects. The cedi has remained relatively firm in recent months, helping to dampen imported inflation pressures.
Looking ahead, the research firm maintains that Ghana’s inflation trajectory will remain on a measured downward path into year-end, supported by prudent policy management and favourable supply dynamics.
If the outlook holds, Ghana could end 2025 with single-digit inflation for the first time since 2021 — a key milestone in restoring macroeconomic confidence.
