Ghana’s oil policies need a reset as revenues tumble

Energy analyst, Ben Nsiah is proposing an urgent policy reset in Ghana’s upstream petroleum sector following a sharp decline in crude oil receipts and overall petroleum revenues, raising concerns about falling production, weak investment appetite and future cash flows.

Official sector data shows that crude oil lifting receipts fell to $198.25 million in the second half of 2025, down from $369.25 million recorded during the same period in 2024, a drop of more than 46 percent.

The decline reflects a broader slump in upstream performance. According to Ben Nsiah, Ghana’s total petroleum revenue fell from about $1.3 billion in 2024 to $769 million in 2025, representing a 43 percent contraction.

“The 2025 petroleum revenue is one of the worst performances in our petroleum upstream,” Nsiah said in an interview with Citi Business News.

He warned that the figures point to deeper structural weaknesses, particularly the slowdown in exploration and field development activity.

“It is worrying and it must be very troubling to we industrial players in the petroleum upstream. We need certain critical, very intentional interventions in attracting the needed investment for exploratory as well as developmental activities,” he said.

Ben Nsiah who also doubles as the Executive Director for the Centre for Environmental Management and Sustainable Energy ( CEMSE) stressed that Ghana’s revenue challenge is increasingly being driven by declining production volumes rather than oil price movements.

“Price may not be in our favour. But if we are able to produce more, output will be in our favour. And such output at even a constant or stable price brings in more revenue,” he explained.

According to the analyst, upstream output has fallen sharply over the past few years.

“An upstream that was doing around 70 million barrels is now doing around 35 million barrels,” Nsiah noted, describing the drop as evidence that Ghana has struggled to attract new investment since 2019.

He argued that reversing the trend requires strong strategic direction from the Ministry of Energy and Green Transition, particularly in strengthening the role of the Petroleum Commission.

“The strategic vision must come from the ministry of how they can equip the Petroleum Commission to review certain strategies or regulatory practices that will entice these investors into our petroleum upstream,” he said, adding that the sector is “almost near comatose.”

Nsiah also warned that sustained weakness in upstream activity could undermine the financial health of the Ghana National Petroleum Corporation (GNPC), whose ability to meet cash calls and fund new exploration depends heavily on petroleum receipts.

“GNPC’s main source of revenue comes from our petroleum process. And if the sector is not doing well, it’s also going to impact GNPC negatively in terms of being able to contribute to cash calls and also being able to get other revenues to explore the Volta Basin and other offshore activities,” he cautioned.

Without renewed investment in well development and frontier exploration, Nsiah warned of a downward spiral in output and state revenues.

“If we are not able to develop our wells, explore more oil, it means that our outputs will continue to crash. If our output continues to crash, revenue flows crashes, and GNPC crashes within the medium term — which I don’t think Ghanaians want to see,” he added.