The International Monetary Fund has projected global economic growth to slow to 3.1% in 2026, citing rising geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, as a major drag on economic momentum.
The projection is contained in the Fund’s April 2026 World Economic Outlook, which signals a weakening global outlook amid mounting uncertainty.
The latest forecast marks a moderation from the roughly 3.4% growth recorded in 2024 and 2025, and falls below the historical average of 3.7% observed between 2000 and 2019.
In addition, the 2026 outlook has been revised downward by 0.2 percentage points compared to the IMF’s January update, reflecting the growing impact of global uncertainty on trade, investment and financial conditions.
According to the Fund, its projections are based on a reference scenario in which the Middle East conflict remains contained, and disruptions to global commodity markets ease by mid-2026.
However, even under this assumption, the shock is expected to drive higher energy prices, elevate inflation expectations and tighten financial conditions, offsetting gains from technology-driven investment and relatively accommodative macroeconomic policies.
Against this backdrop, global inflation is projected to rise to 4.4% in 2026 before easing to 3.7% in 2027, pointing to persistent price pressures largely driven by supply-side shocks linked to the conflict.
The inflation outlook has also been revised upward, underscoring concerns about the durability of recent disinflation trends.
The IMF further noted that, absent the geopolitical shock, global growth would have been stronger, with earlier estimates pointing to an expansion of about 3.4% in 2026.
This suggests that the downgrade is largely attributable to the war’s impact on commodity markets and broader economic sentiment.
Emerging market and developing economies are expected to bear the brunt of the slowdown, particularly commodity-importing countries with existing macroeconomic vulnerabilities.
Growth in these economies has been revised down more sharply than in advanced economies, highlighting widening disparities in the global recovery.
The report also outlines significant downside risks. A prolonged or intensifying conflict could push global growth down to 2.5% in 2026, accompanied by higher inflation.
In a more severe scenario involving major disruptions to energy infrastructure, growth could fall further to around 2%, with inflation rising and deepening macroeconomic instability across regions.
Beyond geopolitical tensions, the IMF flagged additional risks including rising public debt, potential financial market corrections, trade tensions and weakening institutional credibility in monetary policy.
These factors, coupled with fragile fiscal buffers in many economies, could amplify vulnerabilities if shocks persist.
While artificial intelligence-driven investment and structural reforms present potential upside, the IMF cautioned that the global economy is entering a period of heightened uncertainty that will require careful policy coordination.
