The recent reporting around the World Bank’s April 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook, which projects cocoa prices to fall by more than 50 percent in 2026, has understandably caused anxiety among Ghanaian cocoa farmers, licensed buyers, and the wider public.
As Ghana’s sole authorised cocoa exporter, the Cocoa Marketing Company (Ghana) Limited believes a clearer reading of the report is warranted. The headline, taken in isolation, suggests a further collapse is coming. The data say something quite different.
The drop has already happened
Cocoa futures on the ICE exchange have fallen approximately 73 percent from the December 2024 record high of US$12,931 per metric tonne, and are now trading in the region of US$3,000–$3,400 per tonne. Year-to-date in 2026, prices are down roughly 44 percent.
The World Bank’s 2026 average forecast of US$3,800 per tonne is, in fact, above current spot prices. Properly read, the Bank is not forecasting a fresh collapse; it is describing a year-on-year average against an exceptionally elevated 2025 base. The structural correction is largely behind us, not ahead.
The floor is well-supported around current levels
Several fundamentals argue against a sustained move below the US$3,000 region. Certified cocoa stocks at exchange-monitored warehouses, while elevated by recent standards, have begun drawing down from their April peak.
European grinder inventories are tightening as destocking runs its course. Most importantly, the World Bank’s own forecast carries a significant upside risk that Ghanaian commentary has overlooked: the report explicitly cites a 61 percent probability of El Niño conditions developing in the second half of 2026.
El Niño historically reduces rainfall in the West African cocoa belt at exactly the wrong moment in the crop cycle. A material El Niño event would render the Bank’s rebound assumption, a 34 percent production recovery in Ghana and 5 percent in Côte d’Ivoire, implausible.
Demand destruction has likely peaked
While first-quarter grinding data from Europe and North America remained weak, the price-induced reformulation cycle that drove demand destruction over the past 18 months is reaching its natural limits. Chocolate manufacturers have already substituted, downsized, and reformulated to the extent that elasticity allows.
As the 2025 price shock works through hedging cycles and inventory positions, grindings should stabilise into the second and third quarters of 2026, with a more visible recovery as confectionery majors rebuild forward cover at lower prices.
The World Bank sits at the bearish end of the analyst range
It is also important for Ghanaian readers to understand that the Bank’s forecast is one view among several, and it sits at the lower bound of credible institutional projections.
J.P. Morgan Global Research has maintained a medium-term anchor of approximately US$6,000 per tonne. ING’s commodities desk forecasts London cocoa to average a little above £3,400 per tonne in 2026, equivalent to roughly US$4,400–$4,600.
Rabobank and Citigroup have revised their 2025/26 surplus estimates downward, signalling a tighter supply picture than the Bank’s baseline assumes. The consensus among major commercial banks points to 2026 closing somewhat below US$4,000 per tonne, with further gains expected in 2027 as demand recovers and weather risks are priced in.
What this means for Ghana
The 12 February 2026 producer price reset to GH₵41,392 per tonne, anchored to 90 percent of achieved gross FOB, was a difficult but necessary realignment. It was calibrated against precisely the kind of world price environment now described by the Bank, not the peak prices of 2024, and not a hypothetical further halving.
Under the new pricing framework, Ghanaian farmers receive a transparent and defensible share of the world market price, with automatic adjustment as global conditions evolve. This is the structural advance that the cocoa sector reform delivers: pain is shared more honestly, but so is recovery.
The implication for farmers is clear. The current price environment, while challenging, is not the leading edge of a continuing collapse.
It is much closer to the bottom than the top. Investment in farm maintenance, fertiliser application, and replanting should be planned on the basis that 2026 prices will average at or modestly above current levels, with meaningful upside if El Niño materialises or if demand recovers ahead of consensus. Panic-driven decisions, whether to abandon farms, switch crops, or sell stocks at distress prices, are not supported by the underlying market structure.
A call for analytical discipline
As MD of the Cocoa Marketing Company, I respect the analytical work of the World Bank and engage closely with its commodity research. But in a sector as central to Ghana’s economy and to the livelihoods of more than 800,000 farming households, headlines matter.
A figure stripped of its baseline, its context, and its risk profile becomes a different statement than the one the Bank intended. Our responsibility, as the institution closest to the trading desk and to the physical market, is to ensure the public receives the full picture.
Cocoa has corrected. The floor is largely here. The fundamentals: weather risk, depleting stocks, demand stabilisation, and a tighter-than-headlined supply picture argue for cautious optimism, not despair. Ghana’s reform programme has positioned the sector to absorb this cycle and emerge stronger. That is the message farmers and policymakers should take from the April 2026 outlook.
