The 2024 general elections marked a significant political shift in Ghana, with the National Democratic Congress (NDC) delivering a decisive victory over the incumbent New Patriotic Party (NPP).
John Dramani Mahama, the NDC’s presidential candidate, secured 6,189,388 votes to defeat the NPP’s Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, who obtained 4,728,991 votes out of a total of 11,553,351 valid ballots cast.
In parliamentary elections, the NDC gained a commanding majority with 182 seats, leaving the NPP with 88 seats. Additionally, four seats were claimed by independent candidates. This outcome represents a significant shift, with the NPP losing 49 seats and the NDC gaining 45.
Despite the comprehensive results, two constituencies—Ablekuma North and Dome-Kwabenya—remain unresolved and are yet to be included in the national tallies. The Electoral Commission has assured the public that these results will be finalised soon.
The ‘Kingmaking’ Region
During the 2024 elections, the Central Region once again proved its pivotal role in Ghanaian politics. Due to its history of shifting allegiances, it is known as the “bellwether” or “kingmaker” region.
Unlike some regions described as strongholds, such as the Ashanti Region (NPP) and Volta Region (NDC), the Central Region’s electorates exhibit dynamic shifts, particularly pronounced every eight years, with subtler changes occurring within four-year cycles.
Geographic and Demographic Profile of the Central Region
Located in southern Ghana, the Central Region is bordered by the Ashanti and Eastern Regions to the north, the Greater Accra Region to the east, the Western Region to the west, and the Gulf of Guinea to the south. Renowned for its tourism, rich industrial minerals, and elite high schools, the region boasts historical landmarks, including castles, forts, and beaches.
The Central Region comprises both urban and rural populations, whose diverse socio-economic realities significantly influence voting patterns. The region’s 23 constituencies include; Abura/Asebu/Kwamankese, Agona East, Agona West, Asikuma/Odoben/Brakwa, Ajumako/Enyan/Essiam, Assin Central, Assin North, Assin South, Awutu Senya East, Awutu Senya West, Cape Coast North, Cape Coast South, Effutu, Ekumfi, Gomoa Central, Gomoa East, Gomoa West, Hemang Lower Denkyira, Komenda Edina Eguafo Abrem, Mfantseman, Twifo Atti Morkwa, Upper Denkyira East, and Upper Denkyira West.
Historical Voting Patterns
2012 Elections
John Dramani Mahama, emerged victorious as president, with 492,374 votes against his opponent, Nana Akufo-Addo of the NPP who had 430,135 votes.
The party’s good fortunes were reflected in the Parliamentary elections, by winning the majority of seats, thus 14 constituencies compared to the NPP’s 5 seats.
2016 Elections
The election saw the number of constituencies in the Central region increasing from 19 to 23.
At the end of polls, Nana Akufo-Addo, contesting on the ticket of the NPP, emerged victorious in the region with 496, 668 votes while the NDC’s John Dramani Mahama had 405, 262 votes. This meant that the NPP led by a margin of 91, 406 votes, a very significant swing compared to John Mahama’s 2012 margin. The NPP not only won the presidential race but also flipped the parliamentary landscape in the region. They secured 19 out of the 23 seats, while the NDC managed only 4 seats.
This reversal served as a clear indicator of the region’s swing nature, with voters shifting their support based on changing national and local dynamics at the time.
2020 Elections
Over here, the Central Region presented a more complex scenario. The incumbent President, Nana Akufo-Addo won the presidential election in the region with 613, 804 votes, representing 52.3% of the total votes cast, against NDC’s John Mahama who garnered 538, 829 votes (45.9%). Akufo-Addo led the race by a margin of 74, 975, which was quite impressive.
However, the parliamentary results told a different story. The NPP recorded a reduction in its earlier 19 seats in 2016 (Net loss: 9), while the NDC gained these 9 seats, shooting their numbers up to 13 seats in the region.
The results indicated a “skirt and blouse” type of voting pattern, meaning that voters preferred the presidential candidate, Nana Akufo-Addo but chose a parliamentary candidate from the opposition NDC.
Reports suggest that the win by Nana Akufo-Addo in the region at the time was grounded mainly in his Free Senior High School policy introduced in 2017.
Given the Central Region’s prominence, as an educational hub especially at the pre-tertiary level, the message of free schooling deeply resonated with residents.
However, during the parliamentary race, the NPP’s downfall was influenced more by local issues, running from a lack in local development, especially in its coastal and rural communities, coupled with severe economic challenges.
2024 Elections: A Landslide for the NDC
Presidential Results
In 2024, the Central Region’s 1,752,162 registered voters cast 1,088,856 votes. John Dramani Mahama of the NDC garnered 616,989 votes, while Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia of the NPP secured 421,691 votes. This translated to a margin of 195,298 votes in favour of the NDC—a significant swing from previous elections. The NDC swept 21 out of 23 constituencies, leaving the NPP victorious in only two.
Parliamentary Results
The parliamentary elections mirrored the presidential results. The NDC secured 18 seats, while the NPP managed only four. An independent candidate won one seat, Gomoa Central.
The NPP’s retained seats were:
- Assin South
- Effutu
- Hemang Lower Denkyira
- Upper Denkyira West
The NDC won the remaining 18 seats, including key constituencies like; Abura / Asebu / Kwamankese, Agona East, Agona West, Asikuma/Odoben/ Brakwa, Ajumako / Enyan / Essiam, Assin Central, Assin North, , Awutu Senya East, Awutu Senya West, Cape Coast North, Cape Coast South, Ekumfi, Gomoa East, Gomoa West, Komenda Edina Eguafo Abrem, Mfantseman, Twifo Atti Morkwa, Upper Denkyira East constituencies.
Swing Constituencies in 2024
Several constituencies shifted hands in 2024, underscoring the region’s volatile political landscape. Let us look closely at the NPP seats that were claimed by the NDC in the 2024 elections. As stated earlier, the NPP made a net loss of 6, while the NDC made a net gain of 5, and one seat to an independent candidate.
- Gomoa Central Constituency: This seat was held by the NPP’s Naana Eyiah, who has occupied the seat for 8 years, thus since 2016. The 2024 elections meant she was contesting the seat for the third time, which failed to materialize after she lost the election to Obeng Kwame Asare, an independent candidate. Obeng Kwame Asare led with 14,277 votes (38.7%), while the NPP candidate lost with 11,637 votes thus 31.7%.
- Awutu Senya East Constituency: Previously held by NPP’s Hawa Koomson was also lost to Phillis Naa Koryoo Okunor of the NDC. The NDC candidate emerged victorious with 50,886 votes (52.4%), while NPP’s Hawa Koomson followed with 45,638 votes (47%).
- Agona West Constituency: The NPP’s Cynthia Morrison, the incumbent MP, later contested as an independent candidate, after losing the NPP primaries to Chris Arthur. However, both candidates still lost to the NDC’s Ernestina Ofori, who garnered 26,080 votes to secure her victory.
- Assin Central Constituency: This seat has been an NPP safe seat since its creation; however, a new path was chartered, following the downfall of the elephant party for the first time in the constituency. Nurein Shaibu Migyimah of the NDC made a historic win in the constituency with 16, 343 votes.
- Mfantseman Constituency: This also forms part of the seats lost to the NDC as well. The incumbent, Ophelia Mensah contested and lost her seat to the NDC’s Arhin Ebenezer Prince by a 12, 890 vote margin.
- Abura-Asebu-Kwamankese Constituency: The seat was taken over by NDC’s Felix Kwakye Ofosu from Eric Kobina Nyanteh of the New Patriotic Party. Mr. Felix Kwakye Ofosu led with 30,607 votes (59.9%) while the NPP Candidate, Mr. Kobina Nyanteh followed with 19,598 votes.
- Upper Denkyira East Constituency: The seat also switched to the NDC where it’s candidate Emelia Ankomah emerged victorious with 24,426 Votes (55.8%) against Dr. Festus Awuah Kwofie of the NPP who garnered 18,895 Votes (43.2%)
Assessing the NPP’s Downfall
The 2024 elections highlighted significant voter dissatisfaction with the NPP’s performance. Economic challenges, including high inflation, increased cost of living, and insufficient job creation, were major grievances. Many voters sought change at both the parliamentary and presidential levels, with the NDC benefiting from this discontent.
Analysts noted that in constituencies where Mahama secured a lead, NDC parliamentary candidates also performed well, suggesting a cohesive voting pattern favouring the opposition.
Election-Related Violence
The elections on December 7, were not without incident. In the Awutu Senya East Constituency, a fatal shooting targeted NDC parliamentary candidate Phillis Naa Koryoo Okunor’s vehicle, claiming one life and injuring two others. Police investigations led to several arrests.
Conclusion
As the NDC celebrates its historic victory, both parties must prepare for the 2028 elections. For the NPP, rebuilding trust and addressing voters’ concerns will be crucial to regaining lost ground. Meanwhile, the NDC must work diligently to maintain its gains, as the region’s voters have demonstrated little loyalty to any single party. With the Central Region’s status as a swing region reaffirmed, the stakes will be higher than ever in the next election cycle.
The Writer is Afua Adwubi Wiafe Akenteng, a Broadcast Journalist with Citi 97.3 FM and Channel One TV
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