For decades, Ghana has stood tall as the world’s second-largest cocoa producer, its farmers shaping an industry that fuels both the national economy and global chocolate demand. But that position — long considered secure — is now under serious threat.
Ecuador, once a distant third, is rapidly expanding production and is projected to overtake Ghana by the 2026/27 season, a shift that could deal a heavy blow to Ghana’s foreign exchange lifeline.
Across the world, farmers produce about five million tonnes of cocoa each year. For decades, Ghana and Ivory Coast have dominated this space, accounting for nearly half of global production, with Ghana firmly holding the second spot behind Ivory Coast.
But that position is now under pressure. Ecuador, long the world’s number three producer, is on track to overtake Ghana. Already the largest producer in the Americas, Ecuador currently produces over 400,000 tonnes of cocoa annually. Industry projections show this could rise to 650,000 tonnes by the 2026/27 season — surpassing Ghana’s expected output of 600,000 tonnes.
For Ghana, where cocoa remains a vital foreign exchange earner, such a shift could further strain the country’s fragile reserves.
The Co-Convenor of the Ghana Civil Society Cocoa Platform, Obed Owusu Addai, tells Citi Business News this development did not come as a surprise.
“This is no surprise. For those of us in the sector, it’s been clear for the past three to four years that Ecuador would soon overtake Ghana. Our annual production has been dropping consistently, especially in the Western and Western North regions, where the swollen shoot virus is devastating farms. The failure to rehabilitate those farms has only made things worse.”
“If I’m a buyer in Europe placing an order for Ghanaian cocoa, I’d be skeptical about whether Ghana can meet the contract. Many traders have invested millions into cocoa programs here, but the impact has been minimal. At some point, they’ll start asking whether it’s worth investing in Ghana at all.” He said.
So, what is Ecuador getting right? Citi Business News has gathered the country has capitalized on soaring global cocoa prices, with farmers — strongly backed by both the public and private sectors — reinvesting in their farms and reaping higher yields.
Ghana, by contrast, faces staggering challenges: vast swathes of cocoa lands wiped out by illegal mining, and farms battling the destructive cocoa swollen shoot virus.
With Ecuador rising fast and Ghana losing ground, the question is clear: what options remain for Ghana to safeguard its place in the global cocoa industry?
“The solution is simple: invest in farmers. Pay them fairly, give them the right tools, supply them with improved planting stock, and support them to manage their farms. If this doesn’t happen, production will keep falling and Ghana will lose millions.”
“Illegal mining is another major threat. In parts of Ashanti, Eastern, and Western regions, cocoa farms are being destroyed and turned into mining pits. While other countries are investing heavily in cocoa, we are doing the opposite. Unless the Cocoa Board and government take bold decisions, Ghana will continue to lose ground and risk becoming irrelevant in the cocoa industry.”, Owusu Addai noted.
