Ghana’s inflation outlook for June is facing fresh upside risks after the partial withdrawal of government’s fuel price relief programme, with Government Statistician Dr. Alhassan Iddrisu warning that the move could begin feeding into consumer prices in the coming weeks.
The caution comes after headline inflation rose for a second consecutive month to 3.7% in May 2026, up from 3.4% in April, signalling that the country’s prolonged disinflation trend may be losing momentum.
Speaking at the release of the latest Consumer Price Index data, Dr. Iddrisu noted that government interventions on fuel prices played a significant role in containing inflationary pressures in recent months by helping to keep transport costs relatively stable despite volatility in food prices.
“While fuel prices have stayed broadly where they were, this is likely influenced by the suspension of selected margins and levies on ex-pump petroleum prices effective April 16, 2026,” he explained.
However, he indicated that the inflation outlook could change following government’s decision to partially reverse the relief measures.
“The partial withdrawal of the suspension effective May 16, 2026, will likely affect June inflation numbers,” he stated.
The government introduced a temporary fuel price support programme in April, absorbing part of the increase in petroleum prices to shield consumers and businesses from rising global oil costs. Under the intervention, government absorbed GH¢2.00 per litre on diesel and GH¢0.36 per litre on petrol. The measure was later scaled back in May, reducing the diesel support to GH¢1.07 per litre, potentially increasing transportation and distribution costs across the economy.
The development comes at a time when some private transport operators are already pushing for a 20 percent increase in transport fares, arguing that rising operational costs are eroding profit margins.
Any upward adjustment in fares could have a ripple effect across the economy, affecting the cost of moving both people and goods and potentially adding to inflationary pressures in June.
Dr. Iddrisu explained that transport costs have so far helped cushion consumers from sharper increases in food prices.
“Even as one staple like tomatoes surged, the lower cost of moving people and goods helped keep overall inflation in check,” he said.
He stressed that headline inflation alone does not always capture the varied experiences of households across the country.
“This is exactly why we look beyond a single headline figure. At the same moment, a household can feel a sharp pinch at the vegetable store and modest relief at the pump and at the lorry station,” he added.
The comments suggest that while inflation remains significantly lower than the 18.4% recorded in May 2025, the June inflation figures could provide an important test of whether fuel-related cost pressures and potential transport fare adjustments begin to reverse some of Ghana’s recent gains in price stability.
For markets and policymakers alike, the June data will be closely watched for signs of whether the recent uptick in inflation is temporary or the beginning of a broader shift in the inflation trajectory.
