Fitch Ratings has projected that, government is likely to extend temporary fuel price relief measures introduced in April 2026 to protect consumers and businesses from rising petroleum costs triggered by tensions in the Middle East.
The projection comes after Fitch upgraded Ghana’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating to ‘B’ from ‘B-’, citing stronger fiscal performance and improved public financial management.
Government introduced the intervention during the second pricing window of April 2026, absorbing about GH¢2 per litre on diesel and 36 pesewas on petrol prices for an initial one-month period.
The move was designed to ease pressure on transport operators, businesses and households as global crude oil prices climbed amid geopolitical uncertainty.
Although the relief programme is expected to end after the second pricing window of May, Fitch believes the measures could continue beyond the original timeline because the financial impact on the state remains relatively low.
“To cushion the pass-through of high international oil prices to domestic fuel prices, Ghana has lowered taxes and levies on hydrocarbon products for one month from mid-April 2026. We anticipate these measures will be extended, but estimate the fiscal cost is limited to less than 0.1% of GDP per month and can be absorbed by savings elsewhere,” Fitch said.
The ratings agency also projected that Ghana will achieve its fiscal primary surplus target of 1.5% of GDP in both 2026 and 2027, following a record surplus of 2.9% in 2025.
According to Fitch, recent improvements in public financial management are helping reduce the risk of short-term fiscal slippages and strengthening confidence in the country’s fiscal outlook.
If extended, the fuel intervention is expected to provide continued relief for consumers and businesses grappling with higher transportation and operational costs linked to volatility in global oil markets.
